Sunday, December 21, 2008

Is There A Poptropica Credit Card

Black Thought in terms of fractions of boat

I'll write about something I consider quite important that all players not given enough importance: is almost impossible to lose or win a whole box playing hold'em. No, but this post is published at 2 and a half ago, is not that just arrived on a spree and I get to rave, I say quite seriously: is almost impossible to lose or win a whole box playing hold'em.

If we call an all-in preflop with 78s and the opponent shows QQ and lose ... well, we lost the whole box. But if we repeat that situation enough times, we will lose a fraction of our stack-in this case, it is a 78-22 ... lose 78% of our stack. Thinking that making call with that hand against a shove we are giving away our whole case is a tremendous mistake, because it can lead us to throw the hand in situations that we are fully committed to the pot and have put an enormous amount about what we must pay.

On the other hand, how to play our best against a particular hand has no interest: the only relevant issue is the range of shove the opponent. If you are a short stack with 12bb always going to put all your stack, the call with 78s is fully automatic and has no history.

Anyway, I think that raising our victories or defeats in each hand in terms of a fraction of pot, and not of victory / defeat, is something that helps so immediately understand the variance behind the game, and understand why many players make mistakes and exploit them, I think this thought is almost necessary, not enough to become a consistent winner.

A bad call against 30-bb a nit whose rank is always far ahead of ours is impossible to cost, on average, 30 bb: between% nustra improve hand, the possibility that the player is betting the lower value of its range and very little chance that you are bluffing, it is almost impossible not to get get back a good percentage of our call-it does not mean that we do not cost money. Similarly, stamp a box in a post-flop bluff is really almost impossible to cost a whole box of media, and in fact it is perfectly possible winner in the long run even if we are risking 100 to win bb 12bb-all depends on the spot and rival, the odds of our fixture to become a made hand in future streets etc etc.

On the other hand, this leads to another problem, which is completely underestimated trash hands preflop, extremely linked to the above, and can lead one to read the most bizarre comments on Elmina famous players in tournaments poker, for example. I do not want to do now a defense poetic 52s, 72, 74 or 93-to mention hands with a certain cachet in forums and blogs of people varies, but should be understood that the 72nd against TT + and AQ + all-in preflop has a 23% chances of winning. 23 is not 15, not 10 or 0, 23, and ignoring it is a folly that can lead to see rooms fastasmas mode bizarre fake or any theory where there is only one event significantly more likely than many want to accept. AK not 'deserve' to win 72. Simply win, in fact more times, wins you have to win, that's all.

must be post-flop situations in the river, and ranks highly polarized, so let's decisions on average can cost 90% or more of the money involved. I'm talking about extreme cases, against players who are very predictable and with my bad hand. In almost every street and against almost any player, a move made by a decent player simply can not be so bad as to cost 100% of the money committed: the possibility of improving our reach and breadth of the range of the opponent, hands may be manjenando favorite but against the odds still we have enough, make even a bad call on the turn always have enough room to maneuver. Pre-flop, or push to call instead of directly or speak: a push or a call preflop never cost you a whole box in hold'em, it is impossible and a bad way of speaking that, if we are serious, can lead to quite serious misconceptions.

I think many players not to understand the importance of the lanterns and the 'commitement threshold' (threshold of commitment) because they systematically underestimate low-probability events. If you think without any prior analysis to do with A2s preflop shove with 3bet before a call or make with KK preflop shove it open to a "give-a-box, you should take into account the importance of probability for those events less likely, and the effect thereof upon the movement of money in one hand if approached as a long-term situation. On the other hand, if you play all of our stack preflop with AK in a 4bet against a particular player won, on average, 3 bb, understand the enormous variance that spot and it is utterly absurd that is trying to draw conclusions in the long term, is something we will improve a lot as players. By the way, will make it slightly less nits and harder to the coolers.

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